Chaparral, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

164
FXUS64 KEPZ 271147 AAA
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
547 AM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, becoming
    more isolated this weekend as overall coverage decreases. As
    usual, the best chances for thunderstorms will be over area
    mountains.

-   Storms will be capable of heavy rain and flooding, especially
    in the Sacramento Mountains, and near area burn scars.

-   Warmer temperatures over the weekend, lowland highs in the
    mid to upper nineties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1055 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Satellite imagery shows a well-developed inverted trough over
northeastern Mexico, with the typical tongue of dry/subsident air
to its northwest, arcing from northeastern Texas into Coahuila and
Durango in Mexico, and a plume of monsoonal moisture stretching up
the Sierra Madre Occidental into southeastern 2/3rd of New
Mexico.

The inverted trough will actually drift east as westerlies at jet
stream level take over across the desert southwest. This will keep
us in the moisture plume, and away from the subsidence.

However, drier mid-level air will continue to seep in from
Arizona. This has helped steepen mid-level lapse rates the past
couple days, resulting in some stronger convection at times.
Friday looks to be more of the same, with PWATs of 0.80 to 0.90
inches across the Gila and Bootheel, and 1-inch PWs along the Rio
Grande in New Mexico, and 1.20 to 1.30 inch PWs across the Mesilla
Valley, Tularosa Basin, Sacramento Mountains, and EP/Hudspeth
Counties, boosted somewhat by the mid-level moisture, but also
higher dewpoints from the surface to around 700 mb.

So our heaviest rainfall rates potential will be over eastern
areas tomorrow, but will still be plenty high to present a flash
flood risk for the Trout Fire burn scar out west. Also, a rather
messy pattern at 500 mb will promote slow storm motions,
increasing the risk of flash flooding relative to the PWAT values
alone.

Most HREF members show a similar pattern tomorrow, with
thunderstorms starting in the higher terrain of the Gila and
Sacramentos, with activity following outflow boundaries into the
lowlands in the evening. Lowland rainfall chances will depend
largely on mostly-unforecastable outflow boundary interactions,
which despite being realistically portrayed in the CAMS, never
quote pan out exactly as shown. Chaos at its finest.

The real wildcard, as is so often the case, will be if we end up
with a leftover MCV and area of stable air tomorrow. Light showers
look like they`ll pull south of El Paso shortly, but linger over
eastern EP County and Hudspeth County well into the night. That
could be where our clouds and stable air hangs around tomorrow if
it can`t advect out of here or otherwise modify.

On Saturday, a weakness in the subtropical ridge will cause our
mid-level moisture plume to lean east, decreasing PoPs and storm
coverage, especially out west. PoPs on Sunday look particularly
confined to the Sacramento Mountains, but northerly mid-level flow
makes me a little nervous, as subtle disturbances can sneak in and
help trigger thunderstorms in what would otherwise look to be a
sort of "down day".

Moisture never really scatters out in the extended range, and
could improve towards mid-week.

In keeping with the new operations model being tested, NBM grids
were populated and left unchanged beyond Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Light and vrb winds will prevail throughout the first few hours of
the TAF period. Isold to sct shwrs/tstms will initiate in the aftn
over the high terrain, working their way into the lowlands.
Outflow collisions will likely carry activity into the evening.
Brief and lcl MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will be possible with any direct
hits to terminals. Convective activity will diminish towards the
overnight timeframe with light and VRB winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 538 AM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will help to temper
critical fire weather conditions throughout the forecast period.
Winds will remain mostly light today amongst minimum RH generally
above 20 percent. Storms today will favor the high terrain before
pushing into the lowlands. Slow and erratic storm motions will
increase the risk of burn scar flash flooding, particularly over
the Sacramento complex.

Dry air will infiltrate the Borderland over the weekend, with
minimum RH dropping around 15 to 20 percent across the western
zones by Sunday. This will result in elevated fire weather
conditions with localized near-critical conditions. The reduction
in moisture will be short-lived as the monsoonal plume situates
over the Borderland once again by Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  89  71  93  73 /  20  30  20  10
Sierra Blanca            83  64  84  65 /  40  30  50  20
Las Cruces               87  64  90  67 /  20  40  10  10
Alamogordo               87  65  91  67 /  30  30  20  10
Cloudcroft               64  48  69  51 /  70  30  60  10
Truth or Consequences    89  67  93  69 /  30  40  10  10
Silver City              84  61  88  63 /  60  50  40  10
Deming                   91  66  94  67 /  30  30  10  10
Lordsburg                92  66  94  67 /  40  30  10  10
West El Paso Metro       87  71  89  73 /  30  30  20  10
Dell City                84  67  89  68 /  40  20  30  10
Fort Hancock             89  70  91  72 /  40  30  40  10
Loma Linda               79  64  83  67 /  30  30  20  10
Fabens                   87  68  91  71 /  30  30  20  10
Santa Teresa             85  68  89  70 /  20  30  20  10
White Sands HQ           86  71  90  73 /  40  30  20  10
Jornada Range            87  66  90  67 /  20  30  20  10
Hatch                    89  67  94  67 /  20  30  20  10
Columbus                 90  69  92  71 /  20  30  10  10
Orogrande                84  66  87  67 /  30  30  20  10
Mayhill                  74  54  79  55 /  60  30  60  10
Mescalero                74  52  80  55 /  80  30  60  10
Timberon                 71  51  76  53 /  50  20  40  10
Winston                  82  54  86  56 /  40  40  30  10
Hillsboro                87  62  92  64 /  30  40  30  10
Spaceport                87  63  91  65 /  20  40  10  10
Lake Roberts             87  56  89  59 /  60  40  40  10
Hurley                   87  61  90  63 /  50  50  40  10
Cliff                    94  61  97  64 /  40  30  20  10
Mule Creek               91  59  94  62 /  30  20  10   0
Faywood                  85  63  88  65 /  40  40  30  10
Animas                   92  67  94  68 /  30  30  10  10
Hachita                  89  65  92  67 /  30  40  20  10
Antelope Wells           89  64  92  68 /  30  30  20  20
Cloverdale               87  64  90  67 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for East
     Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento
     Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains
     Below 7500 Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...99