Chaparral, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

006
FXUS64 KEPZ 062318
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
518 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Temperatures steadily climbing through the weekend, with highs
in the lower deserts climbing to 100-105 degrees, the     hottest
days will be Saturday and Sunday.

 -  Slight cool down on Tuesday and Wednesday, back into the middle
to upper 90s.

 -  Slight chances for isolated rain showers/thunderstorms over the
Sacramento mountains and surrounding areas Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

We had our last ebb of Gulf moisture move over the eastern areas of
the CWA last night, for the next several days, but it will quickly
mix out and shove east of our region on southwesterly winds. This
will mean deeper drying across the region, with near zero chances
for any precip/storms through the weekend. To our south a elongated,
east-west, high pressure ridge is building aloft. Over the next 48
hours it will build north. However a zonal flow pattern, with
embedded shortwaves moving across the western U.S. will keep the
ridge mostly to our south. None the less, this feature will continue
a warming trend, with temperatures across the region rising to 7-10
degrees above the daily normals for Sunday - our expected hottest
day. Our airmass will be very dry, with minRH dropping into the LOW
single-digits. Winds will be generally light to moderate under the
ridge, but afternoon mixing and thermal activity will allow for
mildly breezy afternoon winds.

Sunday`s lowland afternoon high temperatures across El Paso, and in
particular, the Lower Valley of El Paso County, into Hudsepth county
will flirt with the criteria of Heat Advisory (105F). Most of the
city will likely top out in the 103-104F range, but close enough
warrant the Advisory, for the areas to do touch the 105F mark.

Monday we begin to see the ridge retreat south and west as a large
Canadian low drops S into the Upper Midwest. This will back off
temperatures about 3-5 degrees, with afternoon highs back into the
upper 90s-N100 across the warmest lowlands of the Borderland. At the
surface we will be watching high pressure push S and W down the
Central US Plains, into the eastern NM Plains. It likely won`t get
into our NE zones for the heating of the day, so expecting another
day of dry conditions for all areas.

Tuesday and Wednesday, the mid-range models indicate the passage of
a fairly sharp short-wave trough across Central NM. This will likely
interact with the low level E-SE flow with increased Gulf moisture
over our mountain, N, and E zones for some pcpn/storm potential.

For Thursday and Friday...we see a reversal, as high pressure begins
to recover and nudge back over the region from the SW. It is just a
minor, transitory, short-wave ridge, but it does mitigate any
dynamics, and begins to shove any residual moisture east. This
should make for a return to warmer and drier conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

P6SM SKC-FEW250 through period. Winds generally west to southwest
AOB 12KTS with some gusts to 20KTS after 20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

High pressure is building over the area from the south through the
weekend. This will help to shove out any residual moist, bring in
drier air, and cause increased heating. The result will be
temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal through Monday, with lowland
minRH in the low single-digits. With deep instability, hotter than
normal temperatures, and very low RH, fire weather conditions will
be ELEVATED. However, with the high pressure dominating, winds will
not be very strong. Light drainage winds overnight, and moderate
terrain winds through the morning, with moderate occasionally
breezy conditions in the afternoons.

Monday the upper ridge recedes as a Canadian low pressure system
drops into the Upper Midwest. At the surface a high pressure area
will sag south into E New Mexico. This will cool temps up to 5
degrees, but no moisture expected.

Tuesday and Wednesday, the Gulf moisture from the east is expected
to move into our Northern and Eastern areas, with a disturbance
aloft tracking west to east across our northern zones. We will see
some gains in RH, and likely two afternoons of isolated to scattered
showers/storms over the Gila and Sacs, and northern areas between as
well as areas across Otero and Hudsepth counties.

Thursday and Friday will bring back some building high pressure,
nudging in from the west. We will trend back to warmer and drier.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  72 103  72 105 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            64  97  65 100 /  10   0   0  10
Las Cruces               63  98  64 101 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               64  97  64 101 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               51  76  53  78 /   0   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences    65  98  67 101 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              57  90  59  92 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   61 100  62 102 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                60  95  61  99 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       71  99  71 103 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                64 101  64 104 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             68 104  69 107 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda               67  93  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   67 102  67 105 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             65  98  65 102 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           73  99  73 102 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            61  98  62 101 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    60 101  62 104 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 68 100  67 103 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                64  96  65 100 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  56  89  56  91 /   0   0   0  10
Mescalero                55  87  56  89 /   0   0   0  10
Timberon                 54  85  55  87 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                  52  90  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                60  98  62 100 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                59  97  60 101 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             52  91  54  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   57  93  58  96 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    57  96  57  98 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               57  91  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  60  93  62  96 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   61  97  62 100 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  61  97  62 100 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           61  97  62 100 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               62  90  63  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Eastern/Central
     El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western
     Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth
     County-Western El Paso County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz