Chaparral, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

785
FXUS64 KEPZ 151213
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
613 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
 - Breezy and dry today, with temperatures near to slightly below
   normal.

 - Quiet weather and seasonal temperatures Friday, becoming breezy
   on Saturday.

 - Another Pacific storm system will bring gusty winds, blowing
   dust, and critical fire weather conditions back to the area
   Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025
Our slow-moving upper level disturbance has finally moved into the
Central Plains this morning, though longwave troughing persists
across the inter-mountain west. A weak secondary shortwave trough
is evident in satellite imagery over Nevada. This will sweep into
eastern Colorado later today, and will result in breezy west to
southwest winds this afternoon, with a few gusts around 30 mph at
times during the mid-afternoon. Some patchy blowing dust could
get kicked up around Lordsburg and Deming, but it will be low-
impact. Temperatures will run near to slightly below normal
today.

A shortwave trough will develop off the northern Baja coast late
Friday, and weaken as it sweeps across the Borderland early
Saturday. No precip is expected with this system, but it will
make for a breezy afternoon, with a few gusts in the 30 to 35 mph
range.

On its heels, a deep trough will carve out over the Great Basin
again, bringing increasingly windy conditions to our area on
Sunday. A stronger secondary shortwave trough, possibly even a
closed mid-level low, will dive south behind the first system,
reaching the Four Corners Monday evening. Expect a further uptick
in windy conditions on Monday as a result. Blowing dust will also
be a factor again in the usual hotspots.

Peak wind gusts on Sunday look to be in the 40-45 mph range in the
lowlands, and up to 55 mph in the higher terrain. Add about 5 mph
for Monday`s peak winds. A lot depends on the evolution and
timing, especially with Monday`s stronger upper level system, and
this is still a 5-Day forecast, so things could shift between now
and then.

The trough looks to sweep out of the area early enough Tuesday to
calm the winds down. The longer range suggests a building H5
ridge and warming temperatures, perhaps being undercut by low
level southeast flow Thursday and Friday, which would give us a
little boost in moisture that could knock temperatures back a
degree or two. Can`t completely rule out isolated convection with
the moisture intrusion, but the upper ridge would likely suppress
those chances. As for now, we`re looking at mid to upper-90s
possible this time next week. In the longer term, ensembles
suggest about a 10 percent change of reaching 100 at ELP next
Friday, and a 50-60% chance in the Lower Valley below Fabens.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025

Dense cirrus shield is currently east of a TCS-LRU line, and will
push east of ELP in the next few hours. Light and variable winds
will become breezy out of the WSW, peaking 17-24 knots with gusts
around 25-29 knots after 20Z. Some patchy blowing dust is possible
at DMN in the afternoon, but impacts should be fairly limited
given the lower wind speeds.

Winds will quickly diminish after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025

Winds will remain breezy today, but falling short of critical
thresholds with a few gusts 25-30 mph. Fire Weather conditions
will still be elevated, with conditions improving on Friday. Deep
mixing will help keep favorable vent rates in place through the
next several days, and temperatures will be within a few degrees
of seasonal normals.

Southwest breezes will kick up again starting Saturday, with
enhanced fire weather conditions returning. Sunday and especially
Monday are looking like another set of back-to-back critical days
as another Pacific storm system approaches. Lighter winds will
return Tuesday, but a warming trend is looking to set up later
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  87  60  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            84  55  86  59 /  10   0   0   0
Las Cruces               82  50  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               82  50  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               59  40  63  44 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    82  50  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              72  45  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   84  48  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                80  45  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       84  59  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                86  53  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             91  57  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               78  55  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   88  57  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             83  52  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           83  59  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            81  48  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    84  47  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 86  53  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                81  51  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  72  46  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                70  42  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 68  42  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  73  37  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                80  46  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                81  45  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             73  31  78  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   76  42  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    79  42  85  46 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               74  34  81  40 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  76  46  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   83  47  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  82  47  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           83  49  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               77  49  81  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...25-Hardiman